Nielsen Ratings are generally useless in determining the viewing habits of television viewers, nevermore so when dealing with premium cable nets like HBO and Showtime. With every borderline cancellation, fans debate the rationale ad nauseum, but have difficulty pinpointing the criteria that determines a series fate.
For example, based on the numbers made available by Nielsen, HBO's recently renewed series Tell Me You Love Me was surprising pickup given its weekly ratings were reported at a meager 900,000.
But to take the number at face value is to not only discount the way in which HBO/Showtime do business, but the way that viewers watch television. While DVR's are now in approximately 20% of households and starting to be taken into account when gaging a show's viewership, On Demand, a feature available for Digital Cable Subscribers without any additional fee or equipment has been slow to catch on with media analysis.
While the library of On Demand content is bountiful, HBO and Showtime are substantially ahead of the pack. Whether it's the serialized nature of shows like The Wire, Weeds or Dexter, shows that inspire marathon-viewing or the simple desire for flexibility, in no other facet of television is the ratio of first-run to overall viewers so askew.
James Poniewozik of Time got a hold of the numbers for HBO and they tell a very interesting tale. While the first-run ratings for Love Me is dismal, the fact that they only account for 30% of the total viewership sheds light on HBO's decision to pick it up.
- Big Love: 5.8 million (40% First Run / 60% Repeat Viewings)
- Entourage: 5.6 million (55/45)
- The Wire: 4.4 million (40/60)
- John from Cincinnati: 3.8 million (40/60)
- TMYLM: 3.2 million (30/70)
- Curb Your Enthusiam: 3.0 million (35/65)
- Flight of the Conchords: 2.7 million (40/60)
Even still, those numbers don't tell the entire story. Per the pay-cable model, a subscriber pays the same fee regardless of how many series they watch. During the HBO golden era, it was not only that
Sex and the City, The Sopranos and
Six Feet Under were all so popular, but that they all drew different audiences.
SATC was a big hit with women,
The Sopranos with men/younger audience and
Six Feet Under appealing to a more affluent/intellectual crowd.
Because all three were such great shows, it's likely that most subscribers watched all three. But just in case, HBO had all their bases covered. But with those shows gone, HBO's decision making in relation to demographics had to be far more calculated.

Using
Carnivale as an example, when HBO made the decision not to renew it after its second season
, they knew that almost 75% of
Carnivale's viewers had allegiance to another HBO original series. While its cancellation was met by a very vocal internet backlash, the threat of any major wave of cancellations was limited.
In contrast,
The Wire, a show that struggled in the ratings and was facing cancellation after season three, survived despite numbers no more impressive than
Carnivale (although it had a much lower budget). Because while most fans of
The Wire do watch other programming on HBO, their devotion to the show is such that had it been canceled, HBO's ability to retain its fanbase would have been much tougher.
Thus, given the popularity of
Love Me among women, the news of its pickup becomes much less surprising, the reasoning far less mysterious.
Keywords: Tell Me You Love, The Wire, Carnivale, Six Feet Under, The Sopranos, Sex and the City, On Demand, Nielsen Ratings, DVR, HBO, Showtime, Premium Cable